Brookline enters 2026 as a still‑expensive, low‑inventory market transitioning away from the pandemic‑era frenzy into a more balanced but firmly seller‑skewed environment. Prices are expected to move from double‑digit gains in 2025 toward flat to low‑single‑digit growth, as slightly lower mortgage rates, marginally higher inventory, and steady income growth gradually ease affordability pressures without triggering…
Brookline’s housing market is expected to stay high-priced and competitive in 2026, but with a bit more inventory, slightly longer marketing times than the 2021–2023 frenzy, and a gradual easing in affordability pressures rather than any price correction. Local dynamics will play out within the broader U.S. trend Compass highlights: flat-to-modest price gains, slowly improving affordability, and a thaw in “The Great Stay.”
Market backdrop: from extremes to “new normal”
- The national market is shifting from pandemic-era extremes toward a more balanced environment in 2026, with home sales projected to rise about 5% and inventory roughly 10% year-over-year.
- Mortgage rates are forecast to average around 6.4%, trading roughly between 5.9% and 6.9%, which is lower and less volatile than peaks seen in 2023–2024 and supportive of more move-up and move-down activity.
- National home prices are expected to rise only about 0.5% while incomes grow faster, meaning affordability improves slowly through time rather than via widespread price declines.
Recent performance in Brookline
- In December 2025, the median sale price in Brookline was about $1.6M, up roughly 16% year-over-year, with homes selling in around 57 days versus 48 days a year earlier, indicating strong pricing but slightly slower absorption.
- Zillow estimates the average Brookline home value at about $1.15M in early 2026, down about 2% over the prior year, showing how segments and methodologies can differ even as overall values remain very high.
- A local 2025 vs. 2024 review shows average sales price rising from about $1.50M to $1.66M (+11%), median price up 9% to about $1.23M, closed sales up 7%, and months’ supply jumping from 0.8 to 1.61, signaling more inventory but still a low-supply environment.
2026 outlook: prices, sales, inventory
- Prices: After double‑digit gains in 2025, Brookline prices are likely to shift toward low‑single‑digit appreciation or flat performance in 2026, with luxury and best‑in‑class properties outperforming older or compromised product.
- Sales volume: With mortgage rates easing and more sellers unlocking from rate lock‑in, transaction counts in Brookline should rise modestly, in line with national expectations for a roughly 5% increase in home sales.
- Inventory: Months’ supply having doubled into the low‑1s suggests a move away from ultra‑tight conditions; expect a bit more choice for buyers, but still a structurally undersupplied market compared with historic norms.
Key Brookline metrics and direction
Affordability, taxes, and demand patterns
- Affordability should improve at the margin as income growth and slightly lower rates meet a slower pace of price gains, echoing Compass’s national thesis that the price‑to‑income ratio improves without a dramatic correction.
- Property taxes will be a growing consideration: preliminary 2026 estimates suggest Brookline’s median single‑family tax bill may rise about 6%, pushing average bills above $20,000 and reinforcing the town’s positioning as a high‑cost, high‑amenity market.
- Rental demand remains deep, with recent reports showing tight apartment availability and modest rent growth, and forecasts for more new construction over the next 24 months as financing and construction costs ease.
Strategic implications for buyers, sellers, and investors
- Buyers in Brookline can expect more negotiation room than in the peak frenzy, but should still be prepared for competitive bidding on well‑located, turnkey homes, particularly in core neighborhoods like Coolidge Corner and Brookline Village.
- Sellers who price in line with late‑2025 comparable sales, but adjust for slightly longer marketing times and a more rate‑sensitive buyer pool, are positioned to capture strong prices without excessive days on market.
- Investors and move‑up owners should watch “shadow” inventory and demand—owners who delayed listing and buyers who paused during higher‑rate periods—as these groups are likely to step in as rates drift toward the mid‑6s, adding to 2026 volume without materially loosening long‑term supply.
Source: Compass
About Elad Bushari
Elad Bushari is an Executive Vice President at Compass and a leading Brookline, Massachusetts real estate agent with over $1 Billion in career sales and 22+ years of experience. He represents buyers, sellers, landlords, tenants and developers across Brookline's most sought-after neighborhoods, including Coolidge Corner, Fisher Hill, Chestnut Hill, Washington Square, and Brookline Village.
A former Inc. 5000 founder and REALTOR® Magazine "30 Under 30" honoree, Elad specializes in luxury single-family homes, condominiums, and multi-family investments throughout Greater Boston. His data-driven approach and deep local knowledge help clients navigate Brookline's competitive market with confidence.
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Filed under: Interest Rates, Property Taxes
