IRS data show Massachusetts lost $3.9 billion in AGI in 2021–2022. Here's how high-earner outmigration may reshape Brookline's housing market dynamics.
Massachusetts has posted a net loss of adjusted gross income in every recent tax year on record, with high earners leaving at a pace that may reshape demand dynamics across Greater Boston—including Brookline homes. Between filing year 2021 and 2022, 159,200 people left Massachusetts while 113,586 moved in, a net outmigration of 45,614 residents who took approximately $3.9 billion in AGI with them.
Who’s Leaving—and How Much Income They’re Taking
The outmigration story is not uniform across income brackets. Earners making $200,000 or more account for only about 22% of net outmigration but 55% of the net loss in taxable income in the 2021–2022 period. In 2021 alone, Massachusetts lost about $2.6 billion in AGI—just over 60% of the total—due to outmigration of taxpayers earning $200,000 or more. The Tax Foundation calculates that Massachusetts lost roughly $141,672 in AGI for every net resident who left, one of the steepest per-capita AGI losses of any state. A 2023 analysis found that Massachusetts ranked fifth among states for wealthy millennial outmigration, with a net decrease of 1.1% (2,986 people) and an estimated tax base loss of $589,924,000.
What Brookline Buyers Should Watch
Buyers targeting Coolidge Corner and Brookline Village condos may see modestly reduced competition for higher-price units, though demand from local professionals and incoming medical and academic hires tends to stay strong.
Sellers of single-family homes in top school zones should focus marketing on school quality, walkability, and commute benefits rather than assuming automatic over-ask offers, as loss of high earners could temper bidding wars at the very top end.
Landlords with rental stock near Longwood Medical Area should watch for softening at the very top of the rental market and consider modest amenity upgrades or strategic concessions to retain quality tenants.
Downsizing empty-nesters moving from larger Brookline homes to local condos may find more choice in higher-end condo inventory if a subset of affluent households opts to sell and leave the state.
Developers focused on Brookline multifamily projects may need to build in conservative absorption and pricing scenarios, emphasizing the town’s enduring amenities and constrained supply rather than relying on top-of-market pricing.
Lenders and equity partners may be more cautious about underwriting very aggressive rent or sale assumptions, given projected long-term outmigration trends.
Buyers staying in Brookline should watch for slightly more negotiable pricing on luxury condos while still expecting tight inventory in prime transit-accessible areas.
Families committed to staying in Greater Boston may find that school-driven demand keeps Brookline’s micro-markets resilient despite broader statewide trends.
Brookline’s Supply Constraint as a Counterweight
Brookline has long resisted multifamily housing construction, contributing to the regional housing shortage as jobs have grown faster than housing supply. Even if statewide demand softens, the town’s constrained supply may continue to support relatively high prices and rents. A Boston University and Pioneer Institute study projects that if recent patterns continue, annual outmigration-related losses could reach $19.2 billion in AGI and $961 million in tax revenue per year by 2030 under current trend assumptions.
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Related reading: For a broader pricing baseline, see our Brookline Q2 2026 market report and our breakdown of Massachusetts mortgage rates for Brookline buyers.
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